Oil prices posted a weekly loss for the first time in three weeks, as geopolitical risk couldn’t outweigh disappointing economic data from major consumers and a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories while markets await Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting.
BKR Rig Count | The total active drilling rigs in the United States increased by 1 last week, to 537. Oil rigs increased by 2 to 414, and gas rigs dropped by 1 to 118. Rig count in the Permian Basin dropped by 1 to 254 | Sept 5 | BKR NAM Rig Count
US Crude Inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 2.4 MMbbl to 420.7 MMbbl (about 4% below the 5y average for this time of year). On the products side, gasoline decreased by 3.8 MMbbl (2% below the 5y average). Distillate fuels increased by 1.7 MMbbl (13% below the 5y average). Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 7.1 MMbbl | Aug 29 | EIA Weekly Report
OPEC+ has agreed to further raise oil production from October | Eight members of OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise production from October by 137k barrels per day, much lower than the monthly increases of about 555k bpd for September and August and 411k bpd in July and June. The Sunday deal also means OPEC+ has begun to unwind a second tranche of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd by eight members more than a year ahead of schedule. "The barrels may be small, but the message is big," said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad and a former OPEC official. "The increase is less about volumes and more about signaling – OPEC+ is prioritizing market share even if it risks softer prices." | Sept 7 | Reuters
Asia has ramped up US crude buying, lured by a mix of cheaper prices and a desire to curry favor with President Donald Trump, who is pursuing an aggressive campaign to narrow deficits with trading partners. South Korea has led the charge, almost doubling its purchased oil volumes for November, and in an unusual move, snapping up crude for December outside the usual trading cycle. Japan and India — heavily criticized recently by Trump and his officials for taking Russian barrels — also boosted their buying | Sept 3 | Bloomberg
China’s onshore crude inventories expanded to an all-time high of more than 1.2 billion barrels last month and are currently holding just below that level, according to estimates from geospatial firm Kayrros SAS. The Asian nation has accounted for about 70% of the global build in stockpiles this year, and holds close to 40% of the world’s inventories, said Antoine Halff, Kayrros co-founder and chief analyst | Sept 1 | Bloomberg
Ukraine claimed another drone strike on Rosneft PJSC’s Ryazan refinery, a move that risks deepening a gasoline shortage in Russia. Ryazan, designed to process 340,000 barrels of crude a day, is one of Russia’s largest oil refineries. Ukraine stepped up attacks Russian oil and gas facilities last month in a move that it says is to reduce the Kremlin’s energy revenues, which account for roughly a third of the nation’s budget | Sept 5 | Bloomberg
UK government policy is under increasing pressure from the Conservative Party and the OEUK (the leading representative body for the offshore energy industry) to support domestic oil and gas production as renewables are scaled up. Calls are primarily to end the Energy Profits Levy in 2026 and continue issuing licenses for oil and gas to ensure the UK's oil and gas demand can be met as far as possible by domestic production | Sept 5 | S&P
Angola’s president urged energy companies to boost investment in onshore oil fields to counter a sustained decline in crude production. “Onshore exploration must be stimulated and promoted,” João Lourenço said Wednesday at the opening of an oil and gas conference in Luanda, the capital. Angola’s crude output slipped below one million barrels a day in July, threatening state revenues that fund more than 90% of export | Sept 3 | Bloomberg
Germany’s economy ministry sees demand for gas power plants surging in the next decade if the adoption of renewables and flexible technologies slows. Europe’s largest economy will need 22 to 36 gigawatts of additional capacity by 2035 in order to help keep the lights on, the economy ministry said. That would roughly double the current installed capacity, and compares to a report three years ago which foresaw needs of 17 to 21 gigawatts by 2030 | Sept 3 | Bloomberg
Saudi Arabia is set to sell more international bonds, as it looks to cover a budget deficit caused by lower oil prices and high spending on the government’s economic-diversification drive. The kingdom is offering dollar Sukuk, or Islamic debt, with maturities of five and 10 years, according to a person familiar with the matter. Initial price talk is around 95 basis points over US Treasuries for the shorter tranche, and 105 basis points for the longer one. The final details, including the size of the bonds and the price, may be decided later on Tuesday. Investors had placed around $15 billion of orders by midday in London, according to the person | Sept 2 | Bloomberg
North America
ConocoPhillips plans to cut its global workforce by 20–25% as part of a comprehensive restructuring programme. The decision was communicated by CEO Ryan Lance in a video message to employees, where he expressed concern over rising expenses, leading to the company falling behind its competitors. Lance highlighted that the company's controllable production expenses were $2 per barrel higher than its peers, having risen from $11 in 2021 to $13 last year | Sept 4 | GlobalData
NextDecade Corp. has signed a 20-year liquefied natural gas deal with EQT Corp. at a South Texas LNG project. EQT agreed to purchase 1.5 million metric tons of LNG annually on a free-on-board basis at a price indexed to the US gas benchmark, NextDecade said in a statement Wednesday. The arrangement is contingent on NextDecade taking FID on the fifth stage of its Rio Grande project | Sept 3 | Bloomberg
Latin America
Pan American Energy’s (PAE) unsolicited proposal for hydrocarbon exploration in the Cinco Saltos Sur block has been sanctioned by the Argentinian Río Negro provincial government. Exploration program includes deep well construction and horizontal extension. The company has pledged an initial capital commitment of $8.5 million over three years. Potential expansion to 147 horizontal wells if exploration is successful | Sept 3 | S&P
Uruguay plans to pitch a natural gas pipeline through its territory to investors and neighboring governments that would link Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale deposit with Brazil, Industry and Energy Minister Fernanda Cardona said in an interview. Cardona’s ministry recently submitted a report including a potential pipeline route and gas demand to President Yamandu Orsi that will guide negotiations with a view to make a decision to move forward with the project before he leaves office in 2030, said Cardona | Sept 3 | Bloomberg
Europe & Africa
Azule Energy, a joint venture (JV) between Eni and bp, is set to invest an additional $5bn in Angola's oil and gas sector over the next four to five years. This move is expected to sustain the country's oil production above one Mbbl/d. Eni chief operating officer Guido Brusco said "We have in the next four to five years 18 wells to be drilled on which two-thirds are operated by Azule and one-third operated by others.” | Sept 4 | GlobalData
Equinor has made an oil and gas/condensate discovery of 6-19 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in Smorbukk Midt exploration well 6506/12-PB-3 H in the Norwegian Sea. The license partnership plans to fast-track the development of Smorbukk Midt as a tie-back to the Asgard A FPSO via Smorbukk South. Partners : Var, Petoro and TotalEnergies | Sept 3 | S&P
TotalEnergies (80%, op), and partner South Atlantic Petroleum (20%), signed the PSC for the PPL 2000 and PPL 2001 exploration licenses offshore Nigeria, following the 2024 Exploration Round organized by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. PPL 2000 & 2001, cover approx. 2,000 sq km and are located in the prolific West Delta basin. The work program includes drilling one firm exploration well | Sept 2 | TTE PR, Upstream
TotalEnergies (50%, op), QatarEnergy (35%) and SNPC (15%) have been awarded the 1,000 sq km Nzombo exploration permit in the Republic of the Congo, located 100 km off the coast of Pointe-Noire, close to the Moho production facilities operated by TotalEnergies EP Congo. The work program includes the drilling of one exploration well, and is expected to spud before the end of 2025 | Sept 1 | TTE PR, Upstream
TotalEnergies is battling with production and maintenance issues at Denmark’s largest oil and gas field, the Tyra gas complex. JV partner BlueNord lowered Q3 2025 production guidance for Tyra from 22,000–26,000 boepd net to 17,000–19,000 boepd, and Q4 2025 guidance from 26,000–30,000 boepd to 21,000–27,000 boepd. The lower output reflects a four-day shutdown from IP compressor issues, pigging-related reductions, and water treatment problems. Peak gross output from Tyra is 80,000 boepd, mostly gas. BlueNord still expects “plateau production of [circa] 30,000 boepd net to the company” during 2025 | Sept 5 | Upstream
20 companies applied for Norway’s APA 2025 round, showing ‘considerable interest in exploration near existing fields and infrastructure,’ the Offshore Directorate said. Shell was the only obvious name missing, while the state's oil and gas holding company Petoro is allocated its interests by the authorities. Of 76 blocks offered, emphasis was on the Barents and Norwegian seas. Licences will be awarded in early 2026 | Sept 4 | Upstream
Middle East and North Africa
Syria has supplied 600,000 barrels of heavy crude oil from Tartus port, its first crude oil exports in 14 years. This move is part of broader efforts by Syria to revitalize its economy following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in December last year. Before the conflict that began in 2011, Syria exported 380,000 bopd | Sept 3 | GlobalData
PPL discovers new oil, gas reservoir from Dhok Sultan 3 well in Potwar Basin, Pakistan. During testing, the well flowed 1,469 barrels per day (b/d) of oil and 2.56 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscfd) of gas | Sept 4 | PPL PR
As part of efforts to increase gas resources and production, Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) has secured a total of $340 million in exploration investments with operators of several offshore and onshore areas in the country. Shell will invest $120 million to drill three wells in the Merneith Offshore block. Eni pledged $100 million for exploration in the offshore East Port Said block. Arcius Energy (the recently formed JV of BP and ADNOC) will invest $109 million to expand operations offshore Nile Delta Basin, and Zarubezhneft to drill four wells budgeted at a total of $14 million onshore Nile Delta Basin | Sept 1 | S&P
Iranian Central Oil Fields Company (ICOFC) is planning to develop the onshore Pazan and Gardan fields in Fars Province. Twenty-four development wells are planned at the fields. Initial gas production will be 282 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) increasing to 1.112 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) when development is complete | Sept 3 | S&P
Thailand’s PTTEP has completed its acquisition of a 34% stake in E&E Algeria Touat from Engie, giving it an indirect 22.1% interest in the Touat natural gas project. The onshore Timimoun basin field, which came on stream in 2019, currently produces about 435 million cubic feet per day of gas and holds estimated remaining reserves of 1.92 Tcfg and 5.4 Mboe of condensate. (Eni 42.9%, Sonatrach 35%) | Sept 2 | Upstream
Asia
Russia and China have signed a legally binding memorandum to move forward with construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. The pipeline is expected to deliver an extra 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per annum to China via Mongolia from the Arctic gas fields of Yamal. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced that there would also be an increase in supplies through the existing Power of Siberia pipeline, extending from eastern Siberia to China. The annual supply is set to rise from 38bcm to 44bcm. Despite Western sanctions, China has continued to engage in energy trade with Russia, including taking liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from Russia's sanctioned LNG 2 project | Sept 4 | GlobalData
Gazprom aims to advance the development of Kirinskoye Yuzhnoye field in Russia's Okhotsk Sea part of the Sakhalin-3 project, between 2025 and 2029. The information was shared by Vitaliy Markelov, the company's Deputy Chairman of the Management Board. The field is planned to serve as the feedstock for the Far Eastern Route, a projected pipeline system designed to transport 12 Bcm/year of gas from Russia to China | Sept 5 | S&P
India’s ONGC is likely to pause its Chandrika and GS-49 subsea development off the east coast as it reworks project strategy. The development, centred on Block KG-DWN-98/2 in the Krishna Godavari basin, involves two key EPC packages covering subsea production systems, control systems, umbilicals, pipelines, offshore installation and onshore tie-backs. Sources said ongoing tenders could be shelved or paused, with ONGC potentially reviving them later after reworking front-end and engineering design. ONGC has not commented | Sept 5 | Upstream
Santos is preparing to start up the US$4.5 bn Barossa offshore gas project in northern Australia, despite pressure over CO2 venting and a historic leak at Darwin LNG. Gas will feed its Darwin LNG plant, idle since Bayu-Undan’s depletion, but Barossa reservoirs contain 16–20% CO2, majority to be vented offshore. Total emissions from the FPSO are expected between 2.1–3.8 mtpa. A CCS plan to repurpose Bayu-Undan field to receive injected CO2 lacks guidance to advance to FID | Sept 2 | Upstream
Shell is looking to sell its 16.67% stake in the US $22bn Woodside Energy-operated NWS LNG project in Australia, due to its planned transition into a third-party tolling facility. The project today has nameplate capacity of 14.3 mtpa, down from 16.9 mtpa after Train 2 of five was permanently shut down in July. Woodside has been consolidating holdings as it has struggled to get its partners aligned to its future strategy, including Chevron’s 2024 divestment via an asset swap, giving the operator a 50% share of the venture | Sept 4 | Upstream
Eni is retendering for two long-term drillship contracts for its Kutei Northern Hub and Gendalo-Gandang giant gas developments offshore Indonesia. Each contract covers 15–16 wells (eight firm, seven–eight optional) over an estimated five-year term, with drilling, testing, subsea completion, and Christmas tree installation in 1,500–2,000 metres water depth. Campaigns are expected to start between Q3 2026 and Q1 2027. Produced gas will feed Bontang LNG, while KNH’s Saipem-built FPSO will handle ~1 bcfd of gas and 80,000 bpd condensate | Sept 2| Upstream
Looking ahead
Bloomberg: Would Another OPEC+ Surge Really Crash Oil Prices? | Oil traders are gripped by the prospect of OPEC+ increasing output again this weekend. But how would such a move impact markets? After rapidly restarting a 2.2 million barrel-a-day tranche of halted production during the past five months, Saudi Arabia and its partners are considering what to do with another layer, equal to 1.66 million barrels. Delegates say all options are on the table. But if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries approves a new hike, the symbolism will be profound. Adding barrels despite warnings of an impending global surplus could signal that OPEC+ has fully pivoted to pursuing market share, breaking definitively with managing supplies to defend prices. Forecasters including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict that oil futures — currently about $67 — are bound to slump even if OPEC+ doesn’t add production. If the cartel green-lights extra shipments, it could swell the glut that traders anticipate in the fourth quarter and send prices into an even deeper downward spiral. That could be seen as a gift for US President Donald Trump ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s trip to Washington in November. But some analysts prefer a different interpretation: opening the taps now prepares the alliance for a new era and ultimately supports prices. For one thing, it would showcase Riyadh’s vindication in having reactivated output in defiance of downbeat projections from the industry. OPEC’s resumption of the 2.2 million barrels has fallen considerably short of the pledged volumes, partly as the Saudis scold some members to compensate for overproduction. An agreement to raise quotas further may expose which countries still possess spare capacity — and which don’t. Oil markets would realize the group’s dormant reserves are smaller than they appear on paper. That also would provide OPEC+ an opportunity to recalculate longstanding baselines and quotas, and thus allocate cutbacks more fairly in the future. And by raising production now, when demand can just about absorb it, the organization would be better placed for dialing back if the market deteriorates as predicted in 2026 | Sept 5 | Bloomberg
The amount of carbon emissions that the world can safely store is just a 10th of industry estimates, something that would cut warming by much less than expected, a study published in the journal Nature shows. Capturing CO2 and storing it underground has been considered by many nations as a critical technology for both meeting climate targets and extending the life of fossil fuel-infrastructure. But the potential to practically do that is far more limited than previously thought, according to the study led by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis with Imperial College London scientists. There’s “a prudent global limit” of around 1.46 trillion tons of CO2 that can be safely stored in geologic formations, according to the research. That’s “almost 10 times smaller than estimates proposed by industry that have not considered risks to people and the environment,” it said. Utilizing practical areas could curb global warming by only 0.7C, the research showed. That compares with larger engineering and industry estimates of 5C to 6C or higher, but those projections are based on riskier storage potential. There’s a stark difference between what’s technically possible and what can be safely achieved, according to the IIASA-led study. The researchers analyzed geological formations by considering risks such as CO2 leaking, the possibility of triggering earthquakes during the storage process, contamination of groundwater supplies, and proximity to population centers or protected areas. Carbon storage “can no longer be considered an unlimited solution to bring our climate back to a safe level,” said co-author Joeri Rogelj, director of research at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London. “It should be used to halt and reverse global warming and not be wasted on offsetting on-going and avoidable CO2 pollution from fossil electricity production or outdated combustion engines.” | Sept 3 | Bloomberg
