Prices were volatile but rangebound this week, as the US and China extended a pause on higher tariffs and Presidents Trump and Putin prepare to meet to advance talks towards a ceasefire in Ukraine.
BKR Rig Count | The total active drilling rigs in the United States remained flat at 539. Oil rigs increased by 1 to 412, and gas rigs dropped by 1 to 122. Rig count in the Permian Basin dropped by 1 to 255 | Aug 15 | BKR NAM Rig Count
US Crude Inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 3 MMbbl to 426.7 MMbbl (about 6% below the 5y average for this time of year). On the products side, gasoline decreased by 0.8 MMbbl (at the 5y average). Distillate fuels increased by 0.7 MMbbl (15% below the 5y average). Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 7.5 MMbbl | Aug 8 | EIA Weekly Report
US oil output is now expected to fall in 2026 as prices slide, according to a government forecast, halting years of growth that turned the country into the world’s top producer. US crude output is now expected to shrink to 13.28 million barrels a day in 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday. The agency’s previous projection in July was for 13.37 million barrels a day, and the country is on track for the first annual drop in production since 2021 | Aug 13 | Bloomberg
China’s economy slowed across the board in July with factory activity, investment and retail sales disappointing, suggesting Beijing’s crackdown on destructive price wars and spillovers from Donald Trump’s tariffs are casting a pall over the world’s No. 2 economy. Production at factories and mines grew 5.7% in July, as compared to 6.8% one-year prior. Retail sales 3.7% vs 4.8% PY. Steel production dropped 4% YoY, coal output fell 3.8% YoY | Aug 15 | Bloomberg
Chinese refiners are asking for less oil from Saudi Arabia, with the drop possibly pointing to a reshuffle of global flows as more Russian crude becomes available, according to Energy Aspects Ltd. A decline in so-called nominations for term cargoes from Saudi Aramco for September loading, led by trading-giant Unipec, indicated some Chinese refineries were holding back from purchases given the greater availability of Russia’s Urals, as well as comfortable stockpiles, the London-based consultant said in an Aug. 11 note | Aug 12 | Bloomberg
Russia plans to spread out remaining output curbs it needs to make as compensation for exceeding its OPEC+ target, stretching the process by an additional three months. The longer — but less onerous — program gives Moscow greater scope to join fellow OPEC+ nations like Saudi Arabia as they revive halted production this month and next, when they can still take advantage of the seasonal peak in consumption | Aug 13 | Bloomberg
Refiners in India are scouring the globe for alternative supplies to Russia, hedging their bets ahead of a summit between the US and Russian leaders. President Donald Trump, eager to gain traction in talks with Vladimir Putin, has demanded that India stop purchases of cut-price crude and doubled tariffs on the country’s goods as punishment for imports he has said were fueling “the war machine” | Aug 14 | Bloomberg
Norway Oil Companies Raise Spending Estimates for 2025, 2026. Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2026, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at $22.5 billion, which is 11% higher than estimated in the previous quarter. The higher cost of development drilling is the main reason for the increase estimate, although overall field development costs are increasing too. Much higher levels of production drilling are expected compared to exploration drilling using large floating drilling rigs | Aug 14 | Bloomberg, Upstream
Ukrainian drones attacked Lukoil PJSC’s major refinery in Volgograd in the early hours of Thursday as Kyiv has ramped up strikes on Russian energy infrastructure this month. The Russian Air Force repelled a “massive UAV attack” on the Volgograd region overnight and as a result of falling debris, oil-products spills caught fire at the facility. Russia’s petroleum product exports increased in early August despite intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on the country’s refineries, led by a surge in fuel oil shipments to the highest level since the start of the war | Aug 14 | Bloomberg
Data centers looking to connect to the largest US grid must bring their power supply, the system’s independent watchdog said. “PJM Interconnection LLC, stretching across 13 states from Virginia to Illinois, has no spare supply for new data centers and suggested developers build their own power plants.” WoodMac reports that “efforts to meet booming US power demand… will be hindered by a growing shortage of transformers” with demand projected to outpaces supply through the early 2030’s | Aug 14 | Bloomberg
Iraq was plunged into darkness on Monday as searing heat pushed up power demand, triggering a failure in transmission lines that led to a near nationwide blackout. Electricity demand jumped as temperatures in parts of the country soared to as high as 50C (122F), with millions of people joining the Arbaeen pilgrimage in the provinces of Babylon and Karbala. That caused the failure of two transmission lines, leading to the loss of 6,000 megawatts from the grid and a “complete blackout of the system,” the Ministry of Electricity said in a statement | Aug 12 | Bloomberg
North America
Venture Global Inc. has prevailed over Shell Plc in an arbitration case over the sale of cargoes from its first export plant, capping a two-year fight. The company welcomed the favorable tribunal ruling in a statement Tuesday and said the decision reaffirmed the “plain language” in its contracts. The dispute between the two energy players hinged on deals that Venture Global negotiated to sell fuel from its first export plant in Louisiana, named Calcasieu Pass. The facility began producing LNG in 2022. But instead of providing cargoes to customers with long-term contracts, Venture Global sold them directly into the spot market where prices were at a record high | Aug 13 | Bloomberg
Latin America
Exxon Mobil Corp. signed a deal to explore for oil and gas off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago, a decade after making the world’s largest discovery in a generation in nearby Guyana. The Texas oil giant was awarded a 7,165 square km block about 190 miles (306 kilometers) off the coast on Tuesday. Exxon’s projected spend could rise to more than $20 billion if the company finds oil or gas in the ultra deep water block, according to Trinidad and Tobago Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal. | Aug 12 | Bloomberg
Calgary-based Gran Tierra Energy entered into definitive agreements to acquire all of GeoPark Ecuador and Frontera Energy Colombia interests in the blocks Perico and Espejo for US$ 15.55 million. The agreement includes an additional contingent consideration of $1.5 million, payable upon the Perico Block achieving cumulative gross production of 2 million barrels as from January 1, 2025. Closing is anticipated no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2025 | Aug 5 | GTE PR, S&P
Petrobras has launched a major tender calling for the decommissioning of hundreds of kilometres of flexible risers and subsea equipment once linked to production platforms in the country’s Campos basin. The operator plans to invest $9.9 billion in decommissioning activities in Brazil by 2029 | Aug 13 | Upstream
Europe & Africa
Azule Energy, a BP Plc and Eni SpA joint venture, is fast-tracking its Namibia oil operations as it competes with companies including TotalEnergies SE to be among the first to produce crude in one of the world’s newest hotspots. Azule last year negotiated a stake in Namibia’s block 2914A from operator Rhino Resources, and the partners found oil at the Capricornus well in April. A final investment decision on the project by the end of next year is challenging but possible, which would mean production can begin by 2029 | Aug 14 | Bloomberg
Norway is initiating its 26th oil and gas licensing round in unexplored frontier areas to increase exploration and resources, aiming to counter an anticipated decline in production from the early 2030s. Energy Minister Terje Aasland stated that Norway intends to be a long-term supplier of oil and gas to Europe and needs more discoveries, especially in frontier regions. Despite its ambitious transition to electric cars, Norway acknowledges its continued reliance on oil and gas, having become Europe's largest pipeline natural gas supplier and boasting the world's biggest sovereign wealth fund from energy revenues | Aug 11 | OilPrice
TotalEnergies SE is planning a fresh drilling campaign offshore South Africa in a vast basin that includes major oil discoveries in neighboring Namibia. Total’s South African unit expects to drill as many as seven wells in the Deep Western Orange Basin. Total “hopes to begin to drill South Africa targets” from next year, Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said in an earnings call last month | Aug 12 | Bloomberg
Middle East and North Africa
A BlackRock Inc.-led group signed an $11 billion lease deal involving Saudi Aramco natural gas facilities as the state producer seeks to raise cash from infrastructure assets. A group led by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners unit will lease infrastructure that serves the Jafurah gas project and lease them back to Aramco for 20 years, according to a statement. Aramco is developing the over $100 billion Jafurah project to supply fuel to domestic power plants as well as for export | Aug 14 | Bloomberg
Oman’s main energy exploration company is in talks with partners including BP Plc to boost natural gas production from one of its biggest fields that will provide feedstock for a new export plant. The BP-operated Block 61 would provide the gas for a fourth liquefied natural gas export train at Sur, OQ Exploration & Production SAOG Chief Financial Officer Jaber Al Noumani said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Thursday. The 3.8 million-ton-per-year project along the Gulf of Oman coast hinges on private investment in both production from Block 61 and construction of the export plant | Aug 14 | Bloomberg
Egypt, Eni, and BP signed gas deal for offshore Mediterranean exploration, which includes drilling one well in Temsah concession “in the coming months”, potentially in Denise block. Across the four fields included in the contract - Denise/Karawan (DEKA), Ringa 1, Temsah, and Tuna - three are assumed to be currently producing. Combined, the four fields hold ~3.21 Tcfg and 128 MMbbl recoverable resources. Temsah holds the largest share of recoverable resources, followed by DEKA, Tuna, and Ringa 1 | Aug 13 | S&P
Algeria is close to finalizing a deal with Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. to tap the North African nation’s vast gas reserves, including shale, for the first time, a senior official said. “The technical aspects have more or less been agreed upon, but the commercial alignment is still under negotiation and will soon be finalized,” Samir Bekhti, the chairman of energy regulator Alnaft, said in an interview. Attracting the two US giants “sends a strong signal,” he said | Aug 15 | Bloomberg
Asia
CNOOC submitted an Environmental Impact Assessment for Bozhong (BZ) 29-1 block development, offshore Bohai Gulf Basin. The plan leverages nearby field infrastructure and adds a new subsea production system, four subsea pipelines, and two umbilical cables. It includes drilling 12 wells – eight production and four water injection – located within steel caisson protection structures, and drilling and completion operations will be carried out using a jack-up drilling rig. The project supports China’s energy security under CNOOC’s “Seven-Year Action Plan” | Aug 8 | S&P
Bangladesh Gas Fields Company has signed a landmark deal with China's CNPC Chuanqing Drilling Engineering (CCDE) to drill the South Asian country's first high-pressure high-temperature (HPHT) gas wells. The deal targets the development deep exploration wells Titas-31 and Bakhrabad-11, with designed well depths of 5600 metres and 4300 metres, respectively. HPHT conditions are extreme, with anticipated reservoir pressures hitting 15,000 pounds per square inch and temperatures soaring to approximately 199 degrees Celsius | Aug 11 | Upstream
Looking ahead
IEA – Oil Market Report | Global oil demand is projected to increase by 680 kb/d in 2025 and 700 kb/d in 2026, to reach 104.4 mb/d. Despite weaker-than-expected demand in China, India and Brazil in recent months, annual growth of 600 kb/d in 2Q25 occurred entirely in the non-OECD. Consumption in the OECD was flat, with Japan at multi-decade lows. Global oil supply was largely unchanged in July at 105.6 mb/d, with a 230 kb/d fall in OPEC+ output offset by an equal increase in non-OPEC+. Higher OPEC+ targets announced for September help boost global oil supply growth to 2.5 mb/d this year and 1.9 mb/d in 2026, of which non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.3 mb/d and 1 mb/d, respectively. Global crude runs will approach an all-time high of 85.6 mb/d in August, with 3Q25 annual growth of 1.6 mb/d well ahead of the 1H25 average increase of just 130 kb/d. Throughputs have been raised to 83.6 mb/d (+670 kb/d y-o-y) for 2025 and 84 mb/d (+470 kb/d) next year, reflecting stronger data for the OECD and China as well as robust refining margins, which soared to 15-month highs in July. Global observed oil inventories rose for the fifth consecutive month in June, up 28.1 mb m-o-m, or almost 900 kb/d, to reach a 46-month high of 7 836 mb. The increase was underpinned by swelling volumes of oil on water, and rising stocks of both Chinese crude and US gas liquids, while other inventories mostly declined. OECD industry stocks fell by 28.8 mb in June to hover near decade-lows of 2 758 mb, 88 mb below a year ago. Benchmark crude oil prices were largely unchanged in July, with North Sea Dated oscillating around $70/bbl as easing trade tensions and tighter sanctions against Russia were set against the outlook for a comfortably supplied market. By early August, however, prices tumbled by $3/bbl to $67/bbl after OPEC+ announced plans to fully unwind its 2.2 mb/d voluntary output cuts by September | Aug 13 | IEA
OPEC – Monthly Oil Market Report | The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Some minor adjustments were made, mainly due to actual data received for 1Q25 and 2Q25. OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2025. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, revised up by 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment, on the back of supportive economic activities. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is expected to expand by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y. Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 is revised down slightly by 0.1 mb/d to average 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina as the main growth drivers. Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, averaging 8.7 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 335 tb/d in July, m-o-m, to average about 41.94 mb/d, according to available secondary sources | Aug 12 | OPEC
EIA – Short-Term Energy Outlook | Significant growth in oil supply will cause crude oil prices to fall in the coming months. In EIA’s forecast, the Brent crude oil spot price falls from $71 per barrel (b) in July to $58/b in 4Q25 and around $50/b in early 2026. The price forecast is driven largely by more oil inventory builds following OPEC+ members’ August 3 decision to accelerate the pace of production increases, with 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of production cuts now fully unwound by September 2025 instead of 2026. EIA now forecasts global liquid fuels production will rise by 2.0 million b/d on average in 2H25 compared with 1H25, with OPEC+ contributing half of this increase and non-OPEC producers led by the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, and Guyana providing the other half. At the same time, EIA expects global liquid fuels demand in 2H25 will be up 1.6 million b/d from the first six months of the year, meaning the pace at which oil is put into inventory will accelerate by almost 0.5 million b/d in 2H25. With inventories already building at a rate of 1.4 million b/d in 1H25, EIA now expects inventories will build by 1.9 million b/d in 2H25 and 2.3 million b/d in 1Q26. Inventory builds of this size will cause market participants to seek increasingly expensive options for storing crude oil. As available commercial storage on land fills, other methods such as floating storage or strategic stock building might be increasingly used to match large imbalances between supply and demand. In this case, crude oil prices will fall to reflect the higher marginal cost of storage. EIA expects that prices dropping below $50/b will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, where OPEC+ will reduce crude oil production by 0.2 million b/d in 2026 compared with 4Q25, while some non-OPEC countries reliant on short-investment cycles will also see declines. Most notable is the US, where EIA expects annual average crude oil production in 2026 to decrease by 0.1 million b/d from the record in 2025. EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price will average $51/b next year, down from $58/b in last month’s STEO. EIA expects increases in well productivity will push US crude oil production to an all-time high near 13.6 million b/d in December 2025. However, as crude oil prices fall, US producers are expected to accelerate decreases in drilling and well completion activity, with production declining to 13.1 million b/d by 4Q26. On an annual basis, EIA forecasts US crude oil production will average 13.4 million b/d in 2025 and 13.3 million b/d in 2026. Falling oil prices combined with the slowdown in supply, EIA expects inventory builds to moderate to near 1 million b/d in 2H26, pushing Brent back to an average of $54/b in 4Q26 | Aug 12 | EIA
