BKR Rig Count | The total active drilling rigs in the United States remained flat at 592. Oil rigs remained increased by 1 to 487, and gas rigs decreased by 1 to 100. Rig count in the Permian Basin decreased by 3 at 301 | Mar 14 | BKR NAM Rig Count
US Crude Inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 1.4 MMbbl to 435.2 MMbbl (about 5% below the 5y average for this time of year). On the products side, gasoline decreased by 5.7 MMbbl (1% above the 5y average). Distillate fuels decreased by 1.6 MMbbl (5% below the 5y average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.0 MMbbl | Mar 7 | EIA Weekly Report
US plans $20bn investment to achieve President Donald Trump's objective of refilling the nation's SPR to its full capacity. Following the announcement, US crude futures saw a momentary peak at $67.68 a barrel in New York. Under the previous administration, the SPR significantly diminished due to soaring gasoline prices triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with current levels at 395mbbl, based on Energy Department data. To proceed with the replenishment, Congress must approve the necessary funding, which remains uncertain | Mar 10 | GlobalData
OPEC+ crude production increased by 363,000 bpd to 41mbbd in February, driven by Kazakhstan's breach of its output quota, whose production rose by 198,000 bpd to 1.767 mbpd, exceeding its OPEC+ ceiling by at least 300,000 bpd | Mar 12 | Bloomberg
Energy executives at CERAWeek see the growing power needs of AI as a huge challenge and opportunity, with US power demand forecasts being unprecedented. Tech companies like Google are racing ahead with their AI infrastructure build-out, with plans for significant capital expenditures, and are willing to pay up for power via multi-year contracts. There is a consensus that natural gas will fill much of the new demand, despite tech customers seeking out renewable power, and executives acknowledge that the precise trajectory of AI's electricity demand remains uncertain | Mar 13 | Bloomberg
Shale executives at CERAWeek warned of an impending peak in US shale oil production, as top-tier drilling locations become largely exhausted. As recently as 2023, shale drillers were adding 1mbpd of new supplies to global markets which, by 2026 is seen dipping to 150,000 according to US EIA. Oxy is bracing for a topping out of production in the next five years. ConocoPhillips expects a plateau this decade then holding flat for an undefined period with a “slow decline beyond that because there’s a lot of resource” left to drill. Several executives discussed ways to use burgeoning technologies and techniques to postpone the peak, with Exxon planning to double its shale-recovery rates in coming years | Mar 13 | Bloomberg
Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser expects oil demand to grow between 1.3-1.5mbpd this year in a balanced market and will continue, with most to come from the Global South, which accounted for 60% of global demand growth last year. He also commented on the energy transition as a “painful awakening” for those who thought energy affordability and security could be taken for granted in pursuit of the energy transition to cleaner alternatives | Mar 10 | Upstream
The US is exploring ways to work with Russian energy giant Gazprom on global projects, potentially paving the way for closer ties with the Kremlin and a peace deal on Ukraine. Discussions are at an early stage but could involve cooperation on energy projects in Europe and Asia and may be part of a broader US push to weaken Russia's ties to China and Iran. A US-Gazprom deal could be a significant shift in policy, given the US has imposed sanctions on Russia's energy sector and has been pushing to expand its own LNG sales to European nations | Mar 13 | Bloomberg
US sanctions on Russia's tanker fleet are showing signs of faltering, with blacklisted vessels loading cargoes of Russia's flagship Pacific grade and sailing from the country's main regional port. Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks to March 9 jumped by about 300,000 bpd, the biggest gain since January 2023, to 3.37 million, the highest since the period to Nov. 10. Russia's difficulties in unloading its cargoes could ease should President Trump decide to reverse Biden's measures, potentially opening the way for an easing of restrictions on Moscow's oil trade | Mar 11 | Bloomberg
Looking ahead
Global upstream spending is set to fall 2% to about $386.4 billion in 2025, according to the latest industry survey from UK bank Barclays. “We see no signs of an impending downturn as each of the key markets are healthy and stable,” Barclays analysts David Anderson and Eddie Kim said. Barclays has updated its capex estimates after companies reported how much they actually spent in 2024 and provided their capex budgets for this year. The decline is due to lower international spending expectations — down 1% compared to a 1% increase forecast in December — primarily in Latin America, but also due to slowing Middle East growth (particularly in Saudi Arabia) and, to a lesser extent, in other regions. While the $86.5 billion figure for India, Asia and Australia is unchanged from December, the Middle East number of $48.6 billion reflects a 2% increase on 2024, compared to a December estimate of a 3% uptick. Apart from Saudi Aramco — which is expected to trim spending 5% from last year to $18.7 billion in 2025 — all other regional state-owned players are set to boost expenditure in 2025. Compared with 2024, capex in Latin America is now predicted to fall 5% to $32.6 billion, whereas in December it was forecast to increase by 7%. Lower capex plans from Petrobras in Brazil, Pemex in Mexico and YPF in Argentina drive the expected falls, Barclays said. Capital outlays in Europe and Africa are set to fall to $28.5 billion and $5 billion, respectively, down 6% and 5% on 2024. North American spending for 2025 is forecast to reach $135.9 billion (down 3% from 2024). International oil companies and large E&P players in this region are unlikely to deviate from their budgets unless the WTI oil price “falls into the $50s”, the survey said. It is “a different story” for private operators and small-to-mid size companies, however, who could “quickly curtail” spending if WTI fell into the $60s. The analysts noted that gas-weighted companies in North America raised their budgets for the second half of 2025 in advance of larger programmes in 2026, showing a total 7% increase in spend this year | Mar 13 | Upstream
CERAWeek 2025 - Trump team lays out “America First” energy strategy: Powering AI, boosting gas and eyeing a nuclear renaissance. Energy Secretary Chris Wright opened the conference, laying out the key tenets of the administration’s energy policy agenda. Wright argued that the US needed “more American energy” and wants an all-of-the-above strategy, but claimed that the proliferation of wind, solar and batteries was driving up prices for consumers and impairing the grid’s reliability, despite data showing price declines in some markets following rapid growth in renewable additions. He also vowed to roll back EV “mandates”. Wright put powering AI at the center of the US’ energy strategy as a national security priority, saying the ability to deliver power at the speed and scale needed is critical to the US maintaining its technology edge over competitors. Wright highlighted natural gas as key to meeting new power demand from AI and from efforts to reindustrialize the domestic economy, and he promoted expanded LNG exports as a vital tool of American statecraft. While Wright touted US fossil fuels, he also called for a “nuclear renaissance” to include restarting conventional reactors, shepherding the commercialization of small modular reactors and developing nuclear fusion, as well as expanding the deployment of next-generation geothermal | Mar 11 | S&P
