Benchmarks rose to their highest levels in three months this week, amid chilly weather in the Northern Hemisphere and uncertainty around the incoming Trump administration's policies.
BKR Rig Count | The total active drilling rigs in the United States decreased by 5 last week, to 584. Oil rigs dropped by 2 to 480, and gas rigs dropped by 3 to 100. Rig count in the Permian Basin remained flat at 304 | Jan 10 | BKR NAM Rig Count
US Crude Inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 1.0 MMbbl to 414.6 MMbbl (about 6% below the 5y average for this time of year). On the products side, gasoline increased by 6.3 MMbbl (about 1% below the 5y average). Distillate fuels increased by 6.1 MMbbl (4% below the 5y average). Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.0 MMbbl | Jan 3 | EIA Weekly Report
OPEC output fell by 120,000 bpd to 27.05 million a day in December, with the UAE accounting for most of the drop. Modest gains in Libya and Nigeria were offset by similar-sized reductions in Iran and Kuwait. While OPEC’s own data indicate that Abu Dhabi is abiding by its quota, other estimates including Bloomberg’s survey indicate the UAE produced roughly 3.2 mbpd of crude in December, remaining several hundred thousand barrels above its agreed limit, while other countries are also overproducing | Jan 6 | Bloomberg
Russia’s own data show its crude production level of 8.971 mbpd in December, or 7,000 bpd below its OPEC+ target, according to people familiar with figures from the country’s Energy Ministry. Russia pledged to cut its crude production by 971,000 bpd from the 9.949 mbpd baseline. OPEC+ laggards, which include Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq, have also pledged compensation cuts to make up for earlier overproduction. Moscow will likely not schedule the extra cuts until the summer due to challenging climate conditions and the geology of its oil fields | Jan 7 | Bloomberg, OPEC
The Biden administration imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia and, in coordination with the UK, targeted energy firms Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which exported about 970,000 barrels per day by sea in 2024—30% of Russia’s tanker oil flows. The US is also sanctioning more than two dozen of the companies’ subsidiaries as well as more than 180 vessels, many of which are associated with Russia’s shadow fleet, doubling the number of targeted oil tankers Currently, 135 tankers are sanctioned by the US, UK, and EU, while key oil traders, oil-field service providers, insurance companies and energy officials are also being sanctioned | Jan 10 | Bloomberg
American Petroleum Institute (API) opposes new restrictions on offshore oil and gas development, highlighting the importance of these resources for US energy security and the economy. The US EIA projected that robust offshore development could generate more than $8bn in government revenue by 2040. API emphasised the need for Congress to reverse what was termed a "politically motivated decision" and called on the incoming administration to draft a new five-year offshore leasing programme | Jan 7 | GlobalData
Brazil’s crude exports rose 5% to $44.8 bn in 2024 and volume of oil shipments rose 10%, the first time oil eclipsed all other foreign sales. China was the primary destination (roughly 44%), followed by the US, Spain and the Netherlands. Overall output from Brazilian wells averaged roughly 3.4 mbpd last year, according to industry group IBP, which sees daily crude exports reaching 2.5 million barrels by 2027 as output expands and foreign demand for Brazilian oil grows due to its relatively low carbon footprint | Jan 6 | Bloomberg
Aramco raised Arab Light crude prices to Asia by 60 cents a barrel, to a $1.50 premium in February, after two months of cuts amid weak refining margins. OPEC+’s delay in adding supply constrained that of heavier, more sour crude used by many Asian refiners. The continued cuts and weaker supply from Iran and Russia helped strengthen prices for some Middle Eastern oil grades in late December. Aramco also increased prices for Europe while cutting them for U.S. buyers | Jan 6 | Bloomberg
Ports in Shandong, home to the world’s biggest buyers of Iranian crude, have been urged to forbid sanctioned oil tankers from docking, after a directive was issued by Shandong Port Group Co. While China doesn’t officially recognize U.S. sanctions, companies with foreign ties often avoid dealing with sanctioned entities to prevent being blacklisted. The risk of blacklisted tankers at Chinese ports has always existed — due to frequent purchases of Iranian and Russian crude, which in turn is transported by dark fleet tankers — but some said the port’s caution was likely triggered by the arrival of eight sanctioned vessels in December | Jan 7 | Bloomberg
Biden’s administration plans to streamline permitting for geothermal energy as part of a broader executive order to boost infrastructure for AI data centers. Officials aim to publish the rules within the next week which will include a competitive process for data center builds on federal land and faster approvals for geothermal and nuclear energy development. While President-elect Trump could reverse the new rules, he has also identified data center development as a national security priority and has pledged to unleash all forms of energy, including renewables, to support the massive demands of AI | Jan 7 | Bloomberg
India’s newest LNG terminal, the country’s eighth and owned by HPCL, has received its first shipment, taking the country closer to its goal of raising natural gas in its energy mix from 6% now to 15% by 2030. The cargo will be fully unloaded by Jan. 16 as commissioning progresses. While LNG imports hit a post-2020 high last year, demand is often curbed by price spikes that make the fuel too expensive for Indian buyers | Jan 8 | Bloomberg
