BKR Rig Count | The total active drilling rigs in the United States remained flat at 589. Oil rigs increased by 1 at 483, and gas rigs decreased by 1 to 102. Rig count in the Permian Basin remained flat at 304 | Dec 20 | BKR NAM Rig Count
US Crude Inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 0.9 MMbbl to 421.0 MMbbl (about 6% below the 5y average for this time of year). On the products side, gasoline increased by 2.3 MMbbl (3% below the 5y average). Distillate fuels decreased by 3.2 MMbbl (7% below the 5y average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.2 MMbbl | Dec 13 | EIA Weekly Report
US broadens sanctions on tankers to squeeze flows of Iranian oil. Nine vessels and eight companies were added to the sanctions list with the State Department and Treasury Department. US penalties have disrupted the export of Iranian crude to China, its biggest buyer. The Biden administration is also considering new sanctions on Russia’s oil trade | Dec 19 | Bloomberg
The European Commission announced a 15th sanction package against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. The latest round of sanctions includes tougher measures against Chinese entities aiding in the circumvention of EU sanctions and supplying components. It also aims to target more vessels from Russia's shadow fleet, a group of uninsured ships that evade Western restrictions and export Moscow's oil and arms | Dec 20 | S&P
Federal Reserve officials capped 2024 with a third-straight interest-rate cut to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, with a strong signal that inflation concerns are back in the fore as they see it taking much longer for inflation to reach their 2% target, which they missed for nearly four years. As a result, they dialed back expectations for rate cuts next year and Chair Jerome Powell sees just a half-percentage point of reductions in 2025 | Dec 18 | Bloomberg
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) now controls up to 50% of the country’s oil exports, up from 20% 3 years back. The Revolutionary Guards growing domination of Iran’s oil industry adds to its influence in all areas of Iran’s economy | Dec 18 | Upstream
Investment on the Norwegian Continental Shelf next year is expected to be 4% higher than in 2024. Total investments for 2025 are estimated at US$24.6 billion. The bulk of the spending is field development projects, followed by exploration activity, pipeline work and decommissioning. Cost inflation is also contributing to the investment increase for 2025, while the weakened Norwegian krone is amplifying the effect | Dec 16 | Upstream
Looking ahead
Oil Macro Monthly Report – December 2024 | The 2024 demand growth is expected to average 975,000 bpd for 2024, slightly changed from last month’s outlook. For 2025 and 2026, growth is forecast to average about 1.1 mbpd each year, driven by modest improvements in Europe’s and China’s economies. Product demand is expected to rise from 103.4 million bpd in 2024 to 104.5 million bpd in 2025, with 60% of the growth coming from the Middle East and Asia excl. India and China, with three major downside risks: 1) the pace of economic recovery in China, despite recent stimulus measures; 2) potential demand destruction and economic strain caused by geopolitical price effects; 3) the impact of US president-elect Donald Trump’s 25% import tariff on Canadian and Mexican trade, along with additional tariffs on China. While jet fuel will stay the key driver of global growth, its 2025 demand growth is expected to slow, in contrast with demand for distillates, which is set to rebound in 2025, led by Asia excl. India and China and the Middle East. Liquids demand overtook supply for most of 2024, mostly from Asia and seasonal middle distillate growth west of Suez. For 2025, global supply is set to rise by 2.9 mbpd, down from 3.5 mbpd in the previous outlook, driven both by strong non-OPEC+ growth of 2.0 mbpd and by OPEC+ cuts reducing growth to 900,000 bpd. Brazil is expected to continue rising in 2025 by more than 400,000 bpd, while OPEC+ growth will be driven by expansion in liquids from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kazakhstan and Nigeria. OPEC+ bringing barrels back onto the market at the end of 1Q25 rests on the balance outlook, market structure and compliance. Rystad has cut their Brent forecast for 1Q25 to an average of $75/bbl from $77, with tight crude and liquids balances set to persist through 1Q25 before loosening in 2H25 on OPEC+ production cuts ending | Dec 18 | Rystad
