Oil prices declined early in the week and maintained the losses, with forecasts pointing to an oversupplied market in 2025; meanwhile gas prices rose on both sides of the pond as the winter heating season sets in.
BKR Rig Count | The total active drilling rigs in the United States decreased by 1 last week, to 584. Oil rigs dropped by 1 to 478, and gas rigs dropped by 1 to 101. Rig count in the Permian Basin remained flat at 303 | Nov 15 | BKR NAM Rig Count
US Crude Inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 2.1 MMbbl to 429.7 MMbbl (about 4% below the 5y average for this time of year). On the products side, gasoline decreased by 4.4 MMbbl (4% below the 5y average). Distillate fuels increased by 1.4 MMbbl (5% below the 5y average). Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.5 MMbbl | Nov 8 | EIA Weekly Report
Storm Rafael disrupts quarter of US Gulf of Mexico production | The Gulf of Mexico's oil and gas output has been impacted by storm Rafael, with more than a quarter of the region's oil and 16% of natural gas production still offline. The production losses attributed to Rafael's shut-ins have amounted to 2.07mbbl of oil and 1.12bcf of natural gas. Federal offshore oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico represents approximately 15% of total US crude oil output and 2% of dry natural gas production | Nov 12 | GlobalData
European gas prices jumped after Austria’s OMV AG said Russia will cut off fuel deliveries from Saturday. The halt comes after OMV said on Wednesday it would stop payments to recoup a $242 million arbitration reward. “While the market is at present well supplied, this halt means stronger storage withdrawals during winter will be necessary as well as higher demand for liquefied natural gas” according to F Schmit at Rabobank | Nov 15 | Bloomberg
Nigeria expects a 30% increase in crude and condensate output as authorities strengthen security around the nation’s oil infrastructure and incentives in the sector attract investment, even though the gain could cross over the 1.5 mbpd quota that Nigeria agreed with OPEC+ not to exceed. Output will reach 2 mbpd before the end of the year from 1.54 million bpd in September, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission | Nov 11 | Bloomberg, Upstream
Trump’s secretary of state could hit Venezuela and Iran with harder sanctions | Donald Trump’s team is beginning to take shape, with Republican Party favourite and US Senator from Florida Marco Rubio having been offered the pivotal role of secretary of state. According to several US news outlets, the appointment of Rubio – who has publicly called for a stronger US foreign policy – may signal a severe toughening of oil sanctions against Iran and Venezuela | Nov 14 | GlobalData
President-elect Donald Trump nominated Chris Wright, Liberty Energy Inc CEO, to lead the Energy Department. Wright has stated that fossil fuels are crucial for spreading prosperity and lifting people from poverty, and that the threat of global warming is exaggerated. The Energy Department has little authority over O&G development but has a disparate mission that includes helping to maintain the nation’s nuclear warheads, studying supercomputers and maintaining the US’s several hundred million-barrel stockpile of oil. It also plays a key role in approving projects to export LNG | Nov 18 | Bloomberg
Oil and gas producers in the US will for the first time be required to pay for some of their methane emissions under a congressionally mandated rule that levies penalties of $900 per metric ton for “excess” methane emissions. The effort’s future is in question with the election of Donald Trump as president | Nov 12 | Bloomberg
COP 29
COP29 has more than 100 items on the agenda, and there’s still no text for half of them. There is a text for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) — the climate finance deal that's the most important thing to be settled. But the new target will need to be multiples of the current annual goal of $100 billion that ends next year. EUR and other donors won’t stomach anywhere near the $1 trillion demanded by poorer nations coming from public funds alone | Nov 15 | Bloomberg
Climate negotiators secured a breakthrough on day one of the COP29 climate summit by agreeing on rules for a United Nations-administered global carbon market. “By matching buyers and sellers efficiently, such markets could reduce the cost of implementing NDCs by 250 billion dollars a year,” COP29 President, Babayev said | Nov 11 | Bloomberg
The chief executive of Exxon Mobil Corp. on Tuesday discouraged President-elect Donald Trump from withdrawing the US from the landmark Paris climate pact, arguing that would mean forfeiting a chance to push for “common sense” carbon-cutting policy on the world stage | Nov 12 | Bloomberg
CO2 emissions from burning of fossil fuels is estimated to rise 0.8% to a record 37.4 billion metric tons in 2024, according to a study by Global Carbon Budget. India’s emissions are estimated at +4.6%, EU and the US -3.8% and -0.6% respectively. China’s CO2 emissions are expected to remain mostly flat | Nov 12 | Bloomberg, Global Carbon Budget
Saudi Arabia started a carbon-trading market, launching the program a day after climate negotiators secured a major breakthrough by agreeing rules for a United Nations-administered global emissions market. The trading will help fund climate projects across the global south and also support Saudi Arabia net zero goals | Nov 12 | Bloomberg
President Joe Biden’s administration is setting out plans for the US to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050, with demand climbing for the technology as a round-the-clock source of carbon-free power. Under a road map unveiled Tuesday, the US would deploy an additional 200GW of nuclear energy capacity | Nov 12 | Bloomberg
TotalEnergies, BP, Equinor and Shell announced plans at COP29 to invest $500 million to address energy poverty across Sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, supporting UN SDG 7 which aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all. TotalEnergies says the company is investing an additional $400 million in liquified petroleum gas facilities to develop clean cooking solutions in Africa and India | Nov 15 | Upstream
